This book explains the presidential election through a strategic focus. In the primaries both parties faced challenges from insurgent outsiders riding waves. Rachel Bitecofer ist sich ihrer Sache sicher. Deshalb prognostizierte die Politologin, die für die Washingtoner Denkfabrik Niskanen Center. Rachel Bitecofer is Assistant Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, USA where she teaches classes on political.
The Unprecedented 2016 Presidential ElectionEine Befürworterin dieser These ist beispielsweise die US-amerikanische Analystin Rachel Bitecofer, die den Erfolg der Demokraten bei den. Rachel Bitecofer is Assistant Director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, USA where she teaches classes on political. Rachel Bitecofer ist eine amerikanische Politikwissenschaftlerin. Sie schrieb das Buch The Unprecedented Presidential Election über die Wahl von Donald Trump und arbeitet in der Politik- und Wahlanalyse.
Rachel Bitecofer The Battle of the Bases Has Began VideoReflectUS November Fireside Chat: Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, Election Forecaster Bitecofer had flown into town Friday to tape some segments for upcoming episodes of her podcast, The Election Whisperer. No forecaster has been more bullish on Democratic prospects in Texas in Rachel Bitecofer’s Version of HuffPost Is (Kind of) Here The renegade political scientist has launched a publication named the Cycle. She promises it will not be boring. Written by Andrew Beaujon | Published on October 14, Bitecofer, a year-old professor at Christopher Newport University in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, was little known in the extremely online, extremely male-dominated world of political. About The Cycle. The Cycle is a digital platform for news and politics founded by Dr. Rachel Bitecofer. Forecaster, election analyst, pollster, and all-around data girl, Dr. Bitecofer is one of the most accurate, and exciting, experts in today's political arena. This morning, former Christopher Newport University Professor, Niskanen Center Senior Fellow and elections analyst/modeler Rachel Bitecofer is out with her forecasts for this November’s elections –.
Dann Rachel Bitecofer der Minister fГr eine eigenstГndige LГsung Rachel Bitecofer Spielothek Saarbrücken. - Faltershop. Der Onlineshop mit PrinzipienZugleich warf Trump dem Ex-Chefdiplomaten Versagen vor.
This is an objective fact, right? It becomes subjective once it gets into the partisan environment, but this is a global phenomenon. Other countries are going through it -- it's not American centric, and you can thus measure America's pandemic against its fellow democracies and countries and see how we are faring, and we are faring objectively terribly.
And yet, there's been no real democratic price for him. There's been a mild price, and we'll talk about that specifically. But not the total of what we would see if we were not a country whose body politic is deeply sick with hyperpartisanship and polarization.
What we should be seeing is a massive and total rejection of him. He should be polling like George W. Bush right after the financial crisis hit.
And between those two groups, you're going to be at 40 percent-ish. So Trump is always going to be around 40 percent-ish because those groups refuse to acknowledge reality about his performance.
With the Bush administration, that was kind of true going through eight years of his presidency. And then in his second term, the Iraq War reality started to settle in.
But once the economic collapse came in and really got into the last couple of months, suddenly his approval started to drop below With Trump, that has never happened.
He's set to get shellacked, but he's still not Jimmy Carter in shellacked. So that said, when I talked to you in February, we had one effect.
And that the midwest would be obviously out of reach for the Republicans and that's exactly what we see right now.
We see the midwest out of reach for the Republicans. I wrote this in the forecast and you can go back and look at it — it was a profound misunderstanding of how Trump won the midwest in the first place.
It wasn't winning over this big revolution of white working-class voters. Of course, in my theory, I also talk about a certain segment of independents.
Because most independents are leaners, so leaners are basically closet partisans, they are not persuadable. I can show you in the data that independent-leaners are almost no different in their vote propensity for Trump than people who are admitted Republicans.
My theory has always argued that the pure independents were going to break against Trump this cycle. In , Trump had the advantage of being the outsider coming against an incumbent power that has been in power for eight years.
He was the anti-status quo candidate. Pure independents are generally not highly informed, highly engaged voters.
And they generally don't like the party in power. And so my theory at the time was that they would break in favor of Biden. And then between these two parties, you have to ask is there a breaking in favor of one party or the other.
Usually, we're talking This year we have this second effect, I'm calling it the pandemic effect.
Instead of it being , these pure independents are more like in favor of Biden, and so when we look at why Biden's advantages have extended in the last couple of months, it's that extended growth amongst that group of voters and some of them are seniors.
So my sole update [the one released this week] talks about two effects, right? But also a deeper map. We're really seeing now potential for Texas to flip.
And they wouldn't be doing that if they didn't really feel that there is some potentiality for that state to be competitive. The state has really helped out by the way, by the fact that it's had a ton of down-ballot activity in the state legislature.
The state legislature is very likely going to flip control, they're nine seats away, and almost half the competitive House seats are in Texas.
So, anyway, a deeper map. And it's because of these two effects working together. Tangle: That kind of leads me into my next question. The model on the website you have, it looks like there are really four serious toss-ups that you have, which are Iowa, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas, and the others have a lean.
So I took the liberty of just turning those leans red and blue, and it came out to about a to electoral college lead for Biden over Trump, with those four states remaining as toss-ups.
So, I guess I'm just curious from your perspective, a are we really looking at a landslide of that proportion?
And b if so, it seems like you guys feel pretty strongly that the Democratic Senate majority is in play right now, right?
Bitecofer: Oh yes. Basically my view for in Congress is not only are Democrats going to hold onto their seat gain in the House, they are going to be on offense.
And here is where that offense is going to be playing now. And in terms of the Senate, I was arguing that Colorado and Arizona were basically done deals.
But they need to net four though, not three, because they are probably going to lose Doug Jones' seat down in Alabama. Trump is going to win Alabama, so you have to imagine a scenario in which Alabama people voting for Trump are going to crossover and vote for Doug Jones.
And most of Jaime Harrison's hopes and dreams come from the potential of a huge Black voter turnout surge.
His pathway doesn't have to rely purely on Trump-Harrison voters. And so Doug Jones needs Trump-Jones voters and a lot of them.
And he's got more Black voters than McGrath, so he's in a better spot and him and Harrison are kind of in equal positions in that regard, but what Harrison has that Jones doesn't have is an enemy.
Harrison is running against Lindsey Graham, and Lindsey Graham is maligned. On the other hand, Doug Jones is running against an ex-Alabama football coach [laughs].
So that fourth seat to me has always been North Carolina, and the sex scandal down there notwithstanding. It's a sex scandal!
It has caused that persuasion band amongst those pure independents to be so deep, so much bigger than what it would have been previously, that the Senate map — you've got Iowa, you've got the two Georgia senate seats, you've got Montana and you've got Kansas.
So the GOP has basically five or six pathways they have to defend to keep that 4th seat, you know what I mean? And that's a lot of holes in a dike that you have to fill to keep that majority.
In July , Bitecofer predicted that President Trump would lose the election , with the Democratic candidate winning electoral votes.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. Rachel Bitecofer. American political scientist. Retrieved June 12, Daily Press.
Washington Post. The Hill. Right leaning Indies- which make up a disproportionate share of the overall Indie pool, are closet Reps: they are not persuadable no matter how much you cater to them or whether or not Cindy McCain is on your side.
Did I state that plainly enough? You want to know why Rs are willing non-college voters? They tell them what they want to hear.
Trump talks to them as they are: Walmart shoppers. Vance of working-class America- the real one where people have 3 kids from 3 different women and get angry when 1 of them is reticent to let them visit their kid when they get out jail.